I created a calendar from some of my favorite images from the last few years. It’s meant to be a year-by-year birthday or event calendar, but can be used one year at a time.

Click here to download: CalendarYearByYear

Many thanks to Carol Rudd, one of the mortgage brokers I work with, for this article:

Our mortgage analysts are still predicting interest rates to ease/drop by Q4 to Q1 2023, when inflation is curbed by the Fed increasing the short-term rate.  Current average 30-yr. conventional fixed rate is 6.5% (6.554% APR).

Back in 2008-2010, the housing crash was in large part due to the amount of loans that were given to borrowers that had low credit scores and a higher risk of defaulting– no verified income, no verified asset loans.  There was the possibility the borrowers didn’t qualify for the loan they were receiving.  Therefore, the housing crash began and homeowners started walking away from their homes.  In addition, the demand was not as high as it is right now. 

Fast forward to 2022, everyone who has purchased a home from 2010 to 2022 had to be highly vetted and qualified to buy that home…along with appraisals and values having to actually appraise at market value.  Yes, there are still foreclosures – but not nearly as many, and homeowners actually can afford to make their monthly payments.  Demand is also extremely high.  The amount of people of homebuying age (average mid 30’s) is higher than usual which will continue to increase the demand for homes.  The new home construction pace is not keeping up with the demand for those entering the market now.

There is uncertainty in the market, IE: inflation, recession, the Fed keeps raising the FED FUNDS rate, housing prices are coming down a little, stock market is plummeting, crypto and stock market tanking, are we in a housing crash, etc.?  Here are our thoughts: 
 

• The Fed funds rate doesn’t directly drive mortgage rates.  The rise of the Fed funds rate directly correlates to the interest rate that depository institutions such as banks, savings and loans, and credit unions charge each other for overnight loans.  It also directly affects credit cards, car loans, home equity lines of credit (short-term interest rates).

• The Fed has increased the Feds fund rate to effectively shrink the supply of money available for making purchases and trying to halt purchases/slow down the economy which in turn should slow down or stave off inflation to avoid a long recession.  We believe that there will be a recession, but historically during every recession mortgage interest rates have come down and we believe that this will be the same this time around.

• Many experts believe that there is a small window of opportunity for buyers to purchase homes that are at less expensive values, with less competition.  Over the last several years we have seen sellers putting homes on the market that receive 10+ offers over asking price, escalating up 30%, and waiving financing, inspection, appraisal contingencies, etc.  This isn’t happening as often in this current marketplace.  We believe there is a 6-9 month opportunity for buyers to get a home at or just above list price, saving thousands of dollars because they won’t have to escalate 20%-30%; even though interest rates are higher– there will be an opportunity to refinance when rates come down over the next several months to a couple of years.  Rates will come down, so consider the current interest rate as a “temporary rate” — you’ll be making 6%-10% return on your investment in your home in the meantime. 

• A lot of potential buyers are saying they are going to wait and see what the market does, BUT this is only creating more pent-up buyer demand that will eventually push home prices and bidding wars to an all-time high again, so we suggest buying during this time rather than waiting it out. 

• Take the higher rate and refinance down the road to save money on a monthly basis; don’t compete with all of the buyers that will eventually want to buy again, and save thousands on the purchase price. 

• Home prices are still projected to increase 6%-10% which is healthy, the days of 25%+ increases annually are over and that is good.  Inventory is a bit higher which is good too, but again, demand is still there so take advantage of the correction and the slow down.

With increased housing inventory in the market we are seeing more choices for buyers, which means homes coming on the market need to be more competitive. Read through the SellingYourHouseFall2022.pdf and then contact me for a market analysis of your neighborhood.

The market has changed and buying has become easier with homes staying on the market longer, and the return of contingencies. Of course there are still neighborhoods with high demand and offers need to be crafted depending on the circumstances. I’ll do the research and recommend strategies for getting your offer accepted.

Meanwhile read through the Fall Buyer’s Guide.

View from a friend’s condominium rooftop deck

Summer is here in force and we are seeing temperatures in the nineties! I know that is normal in my home state (I grew up between Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo), but here seventy-two degrees is usually a hot day!

I’m so happy that much of my world has opened up again and I am able to volunteer with the Master Gardeners and Dunn Gardens. I also joined the Ballard Rotary Club and am enjoying the group.

Many people comment that I go all over, and it’s true! Ever since my Grandmother gave me her VW Bug when I graduated from high school, I have loved driving. Back then it was the Sierras, now it is mostly around Washington. I always say “Have Highlander Hybrid, will travel”. My background in tech gives me an edge in researching properties; I always do a “deep dive” for my clients.

With that in mind, I enjoyed showing a friend homes and neighborhoods in Anacortes. I drove up the day before, stayed in a nice AirBnB, and met her in the morning. We also stopped at the city planning department to drill down on a few questions such as vacation rental permits, water tables and zoning. The Anacortes city planning department is over the top on customer service.

I’ve also been helping friends and clients in Seattle, Edmonds and on Camano Island. Many are downsizing and so looking to buy before selling their current homes.

________________________

Thinking of selling or buying?
Read through my new seller’s guide and/or buyer’s guide and call for an intake appointment.

Real Estate
Market Activity

A change may be coming down the pike this fall due to a law suit at the national level. This article describes it well.

The tradition has been that the seller pays both the buyer’s agent and selling agent’s compensation. In order to more motivate the buyer’s agent, it is recommended to show a reasonable compensation. 

Our multiple listing service’s attorneys have decided to be proactive and have changed our purchase and sale form starting this fall. There will be a new line item which will show how much the buyer is bringing in compensation to the buyer’s agent.

It may be mandatory to use a buyer’s agency agreement. This is a contract between the buyer and the buyer’s agent which specifies how much the buyer will pay the agent, especially in the case when the seller is not offering  any compensation, or a low compensation. 

These are in use now. Some brokers won’t go out with buyers without a signed agreement. I have always been more trusting in my relationships with my clients and know they understand my value and will be loyal (see below). In some cases I have shown perhaps thirty listings without a client making a purchase. On the other hand, I have had clients fall in love with the first listing, we wrote an offer and it was accepted, and so there was little time involved, but expertise. 

It might be hard for some buyers to pay compensation as well. For example, one of my younger first-time home buyers had a great job but a strict budget and didn’t have much extra to spend. Her father was providing a down payment.

At this point, compensation can’t be rolled into a mortgage.

I like to say it all averages out, however this might not be the case in the future. I might have to use the buyer’s agency agreement.

If you are wondering about what I do as a buyer’s agent, please flip through my  buyer’s guide.

Northwest Multiple Press Release

Brokers, home buyers welcome growing inventory and market returning to “some sense of normalcy”

KIRKLAND, Washington (July 6, 2022) – Housing statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service for June show signs of a shifting market, creating opportunities for some buyers. Compared to a year ago, Northwest MLS (NWMLS) brokers reported a healthy jump in inventory, double-digit drops in both pending and closed sales, and the smallest year-over-year (YOY) increase in prices since June 2020.

“What the changes mean in general terms, are more houses on the market, longer market times, stabilizing home prices, fewer showings and open house visitors, fewer offers at one time, and more price adjustments,” said Frank Wilson, Kitsap regional manager at John L. Scott Real Estate.

“It’s nice to see a more balanced market for buyers,” remarked Dean Rebhuhn, owner at Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville, pointing to the increase in new listings, more price reductions, and still favorable mortgage rates as factors that are creating opportunities for buyers. “The return of financing and inspection contingencies are now the norm,” he reported.

Northwest MLS brokers added 14,223 new listings of single family homes and condos to inventory during June, up from both May, when they added 13,075 homes system-wide, and a year ago, when they added 13,111 properties to the database. Last month’s total was the highest volume of new listings since May 2019 when brokers tallied 14,689 new listings.

Click-here to read more.

Charts and Graphs

Reports Available from Rainier Title

Click-through to see the latest activity for the entire MLS:
New Listings  
Sales Price 
Pending Sales 
Days on Market 

Median Sales Price for Specific Areas
Seattle
Bellevue
Issaquah
Edmonds
Everett
Bellingham
Anacortes
Tacoma

Median Days on The Market for Specific Areas
Seattle
Bellevue
Issaquah
Edmonds
Everett
Bellingham
Anacortes

Facebook|Twitter

With interest rates on the rise, buyers might have a little less purchasing power, however it’s still possible to buy. Download the buyer’s guide to find out more: BuyingaHomeSummer2022.pdf

Click-through and download the seller’s guide; whether or not you are ready to sell now, there is great information:  SellingYourHouseSummer2022.pdf

When selling a home, one needs to decide on inspections.

There are three main categories:

1. Seller-paid Inspection
2. Buyer-paid pre-inspections
3. Inspection contingencies

The trend has gone to seller-paid inspections (which are pre-inspections) and back to asking for offers with inspection contingencies.

Buyer-paid pre-inspections require appointments and a bit of wear-and-tear on the house, but the buyers do know what they are getting into. Sometimes they will get them despite having a seller-paid inspection, although in this market, due to short time frames, they often don’t have time.

Going back to the “old fashioned” inspection contingency means the offers are evaluated on all the rest of their data, and not hinged on inspection.

That said, it is a tactic to get an inspection and then ask for repair costs to bargain down the price.

Different strategies work in different scenarios; if you would like to hear more, please give me a call.

Pricing a property is an interesting process, and I have been working on several in the last few months since the restrictions ended. These are in different places geographically, but thanks to the tools we have in our multiple listing service, and my tech background, I can offer an accurate price opinion.

Here is my process.

Considering that sellers often contact me weeks, months, and even years before the property sells, I first run a report using our “Realist” program. This report pulls all the public information on the property, and comes up with a range for the price, plus what it calls the RealAVM.

The RealAVM is generated by an algorithm, similar to the Zestimate and Redfin’s estimate.

Sometimes these are all in alignment, and other times they vary greatly.

Once in awhile a property owner will tell me that the number of bedrooms and bathrooms differ – this could be most likely because permits were not pulled for various additions. Thus, if a three-quarter bath was converted to a full bath (the addition of a bathtub) without a permit, this will not be reflected.

None of these programs “know” the condition of the house; the algorithms just work with like properties that have recently closed.

After pulling these numbers, I then go to our Comparative Market Analysis program in the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

I’ll often run what I call a “macro view”; I’ll draw a line around the neighborhood and see how many sales there have been in general, and if there were many escalations or reductions. This just gives a feel for the demand in a particular place.

Then I hone down to the micro view and look for specific comparables.

Sometimes this can be easy – for example, I recently ran a report on split entries in neighborhoods of Marysville and Snohomish. These homes are generally somewhat uniform and often have three bedrooms up, and two large rooms below. Once in awhile there are conversions. They may differ in garage placement, and the size of the garages.

In the case of the Marysville neighborhood, the sales have been out of this world. One would almost think that every other home has gone on the market, and they all sold between 525k-600k. Huge demand, low supply, although the supply seems to have loosened up lately which could eventually bring prices down.

The same goes for Queen Anne, and although the home I have been working with there has fewer direct comparables, the neighborhood is in great demand. Queen Anne is close to South Lake Union, Amazon, Facebook and other tech companies.

Another home is a waterfront condominium; the complex and area has seen a lot of activity.

One property I’ve been working on is in an area that has no comparables what so ever, however, all the properties that sold around it went off the market for a week. If this property goes on the market at too high a price, it will sit, and probably end up selling for less than it would if it was properly priced.

Once this first analysis has been completed, I turn to condition. What is the condition of the roof, appliances, water heater, heating system? Does the house need new carpets, paint or other big ticket items? These all go into the hopper when I come up with a price range.

Considering this is a seller’s market, it’s been a feeding frenzy, as we say. I sat in on our Lake Union meeting today and heard that a couple of listings that came on this week in the core area had 50 groups at the open house.

It’s still a great time to sell, and while buying may be challenging, there are homes out there, and they seem to be on the increase.

I sat in on Brian Buffini’s Real Estate market report today and it was very interesting. Here are a few notes.

The dollar value is at 100%.

Job market low.

Utah and Idaho are the same as they have been open.

These who are working are doing more.

Help wanted signs everywhere.

Inflation – core inflation – excludes food and volatile fuels, rising at the highest pace in 30 years.

Plays into real estate, fixed assets, with fixed payment, more demand for real estate than ever before.

Seeing a 4-7% rent increase.

Mortgage is fixed, great in terms of getting family finances. Asset price houses are rising. Strongly.

Where will we finish the year in transaction, highest 6.1 million? Seeing some topping out. Approaching pre-pandemic levels, past the surge.

Picked out 2 2x4s worth more than the contractor’s labor.

Inventory in 6 months will be better – we are passed the acute shortage of inventory.

New construction – more more housing permits.

Mortgage forbearance, phased out, we hope they can find a job and become current. Will have to sell. Probably not foreclosure, but added inventory.

Most asked question on Google is this a bubble?

Why is this different?

Look at inventory. 1.2m homes now, last time we had 4 times the amount of homes on market.

Second – no shady, risky mortgages. Immune to policy changes.

Bubble? No – with a bubble you see runaway price increases, lower downs, adjustable rate mortgages.

Now – prices rising, 2x down payment, rates are fixed, more equity, locking in low rates on 30 year fixed.

Given the 20% price increases, Could it decline? Of course, but not persistent. Have an army of buyers who have been outbid. Don’t expect a persistent price decline. Second chance opportunity for those that have been outbid.

Rental price increases will feed into demand and rates are going to stay low.

Pent up demand to move – older folks were put off do to Covid.

Those who put off moving might add to inventory now.

What we are seeing the is the number of new cases of Covid are down, people feel better about inviting strangers to their house, and dining indoors. Older people will list their homes without fear.

Migration pattern from high tax states such as CA and NY. More acuteness of the tax differential between states.

San Diego – of the 7 taxes, 6 highest, but it is always 70 degrees.

Realtors knowledge about market condition helps with a better acceptance of an offer.

On the selling side the median is 17 days, if over 30 days something is wrong. Don’t overprice to begin with.

Next year a percentage increase.

Top three Google searches where is where the rubber meets the road:

When is the housing market going to crash – doubled last week.
Why is the market so hot – up 350%
How much over asking price should I offer?

It’s Spring; fresh air, blooms, and more listings!

We have gone from living in a snow globe to blue skies and daffodils! Our snow pack should ensure we have plenty of water this year, and, for skiers, Stevens Pass and other resorts have extended the season into April. 

Teaching skiing has been a blessing for me this year, and I love the diversity of people I meet. This year I have taught children to adults, and people from all over the world including China, India, Russia and Slovenia.

Last week I drove to the Skagit for a bit of bird watching, Mount Baker was out in all it’s glory, with a yellow stripe of daffodils and a sprinkling of swans.
 

Real Estate

I recently made contact with a lender in Issaquah, Paul Dolan, who has a great “cost of waiting” presentation. Here is a link to his presentation for $350,000 and $800,000. Of course the various factors are not fixed, and in a competitive market such as ours there are many factors which make a difference such as the lender, down payment, days to closing, contingencies, etc. 

One of my preferred lenders, Julia Harford, from our Lake Union office, mentioned that some second homes/investment properties may be seeing some foreclosures. She says: it seems we may be looking at higher interest rates for second home purchases as well as investment properties simply due to the higher risk.  Covid has effected rents being collected and second homes being rented so in turn there is some anticipation of these loan types going into default.

More News
Click-here to see the recent news release from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.This comes out the first of each month and is printed by the Seattle Times. I like to wait a bit on sending out so that I can also compile the information below.

With spring come the usual flood of listings, but we are still far from a normal market of six months supply. According to the statistics, we have been experiencing three weeks of supply. 

Open houses are back, and listings are seeing a lot of traffic! Examples: Mercer Island – 60 groups. Madison Valley – 25 groups, Magnolia – 16 groups. The number of people inside a house is still limited, and so the lines have been long.

Real-time links from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data for Seattle show that we are still in a seller’s market. If you are interested in selling, or know someone who is, contact me for help.

Note the rise in new listings, and the drop in sales price due to the increase of supply: 
New Listings 
Sales Price 
Pending Sales
Days on Market, (went up a bit for all listings)

Links to Market Watches:
Feel free to contact me about the following areas. I have clients downsizing in Seattle, and moving to smaller towns in the outlying areas, so I keep track of the activity.
Seattle
Ballard
Magnolia
Queen Anne
Edmonds
Anacortes
Bellingham
Leavenworth
Port Townsend 

I recently took a trip to my former home, Port Townsend, to show friends a few listings. It was a beautiful day and I was able to approach by ferry. I still love that Port Townsend was one of the original settlements, dating back to it’s founding in 1851. The city maintains it’s heritage and is a National Historic Landmark District. 

Returning via Seattle, I was able to see the full moon rise over the city, with many of the buildings being lit-up in Seahawks colors. It was a site to behold. 

As the days get shorter and darker in the Northwest, I give thanks and am grateful to live in such a beautiful area and to have such great friends. I’m a bit uplifted by various headlines of late, and despite the new shutdown am happy for the few outdoor venues where we can gather safely while wearing our masks. 

This is one of my favorite times of the year to go birding as we have some of the most interesting migratory birds inhabiting the Skagit Valley. Snow geese, tundra swans, short eared owls and more! 

I was also grateful to finally get my hair cut last week! Small pleasures. 

This season I am helping three groups with year-end fundraising, specifically with #GivingTuesday: Washington Water Trails, the Northwest Dance Network, and the Ballard Elks. WWTA has retained me as part-time executive director, and NW Dance elected me into the vice-president position. The Ballard Elks, of which I am a member, has been hit hard due to their main tenant moving out. 
 

Real Estate
Moving on to real estate, I can’t say enough about the low inventory and the seller’s market. Properly priced listing in the Seattle core are just flying off the market and are highly competitive among buyers. 

Read more here: mailchi.mp/b6016bb9007a/andrees-november-newsletter-happy-thanks-giving-october-activity

One reason I love living here is because there are so many recreational opportunities within a two hour drive. The other day I took a last-minute drive to Mount Baker, and came back refreshed. Picture Lake and Mount Shuksan were as beautiful as ever. 

If you are anything like me, you are feeling incredulous the pandemic has been going on for so long. It seems as if wearing a mask has become an everyday accepted event in most of the northwest, with people varying from stylish to medical grade. 

I’ve been volunteering with Covid testing in Everett, and we get about 250-500 drive-throughs each day, with about 8% testing positive. Only a small percentage actually look sick to the eye, but others have some symptoms. My heart goes out to those who have contracted it; I recently found out a friend of mine that I’ve know since she was a child (I used to babysit her) has Covid,  and has been having many issues. 

Meanwhile, aside from work, I’ve established a regime to stay healthy; yoga, online dance lessons, walking Watson, and bird watching. I’m trying to find balance in each day. (BTW, if you want to join the fun, check out the late morning online dance class with Michelle Badion: click-here.)

If you care to join me on one of trips to the Skagit Wildlife area let me know!  

Sold! 
I’m excited to say we found a buyer for this lovely waterfront condominium! 

This transaction came with a few surprises, and lessons learned. The offer from the buyer’s agent was straightforward, and was accompanied by 20% down, and a pre-qualification letter from Caliber Home Loans, a firm I often recommend. The buyer’s agent was convinced that with so much down we would not get an appraisal.

However, after the inspection was completed we were told that Caliber couldn’t warranty the building due to a lawsuit about a proposed walkway on the beach.

Wanting to keep the buyer, and after speaking to the HOA’s attorney, who pointed out there were many sales in the building, I called Julia Eaton, of Axia Home Loans, one of my recommended lenders, and two other lenders who have helped recent clients buy in the building. 

Axia pre-underwrote the building despite the lawsuit, but after speaking with the buyers, came up with a surprise: the buyers had walked away from a home five years prior and so had a poor credit history do to a foreclosure. Therefore, they would not work with the buyers. 

Another lender found that Caliber was going to broker the mortgage to Washington Federal, and suggested the buyers go direct, and up the down payment from 20% to 25%. While they were trying to keep their cash on hand for remodeling, they finally agreed, and this is how the offer moved to closing! Congratulations to my seller, who is now looking for a 1031 tax exchange property. This may be a challenge, as seen in the next section, as we have lower inventory than ever.  

Northwest Multiple Press Release: 

Would-be homebuyers have more buying power, but also more competition for meager inventory (it’s even more of a seller’s market)

KIRKLAND, Washington (September 4, 2020) – Extremely low interest rates mean would-be home buyers have more buying power, but sparse inventory and increasing home prices in many parts of Washington state are leaving many buyers unable to take advantage of these attractive rates, reported broker Frank Wilson upon reviewing the latest statistical report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Read more here. 

As we continue through this pandemic period, life remains interesting, and I hope you are all remaining safe and staying well. 

I’m continuing to enjoy summer and natural phenomenon such as the comet NEOWISE which only appears once every 6000+ years; I’m glad I am here during this special time. I took this picture on Friday night; it was a bit of a challenge but thanks to filters in Photoshop I was able to bring it out!

There are many articles of how this period is changing our living preferences; we are seeing people configuring both their indoor spaces and outdoor spaces to create better living at home. Having spent my first twenty years in Southern California, I am no stranger to outdoor living, and I do it whenever I can. I have fond memories of the little orange school bus bringing me, with a pile of homework,  back home from Marymount Junior School. I would take up residence on the grass, in the shade of the old Sycamore tree, and plow through my homework until it was time to play. Birthday parties were almost always outdoors. 

Even at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo, we students studied in the shade all over campus. It wasn’t until I attended University of Washington that I realized how different that was than the rest of the contininent. 

In the northwest I’ve always wondered why more outdoor living space aren’t created by simply adding a covered deck using transparent materials. This expands that indoor space, and allows us to stay outside during warm but inclement weather. Of course, on a scorching seventy-five degree day like today, shade is much appreciated (as well as air conditioning). Here are a few ideas from the New York Times. 
 

Moving on to what is happening in our real estate market. In our virtual office meeting the other day, our President and CEO, Mike Grady, pointed to the low inventory and that it is a good time to sell do to high demand. Changes happened so quickly (see the charts below) that brokers were having a hard time keeping up with prices during the month of June, and most well-priced homes escalated much further than anyone expected. I’ve noticed on my buyer client’s feeds that there was an increase in inventory last week, so maybe we are seeing a bit of loosening, but not enough to satisfy the demand. Part of this demand is also driven by the very low interest rates. 

Northwest Multiple Press Release: 

Historically low interest rates and lifestyle changes are fueling housing activity around Washington state, according to Dean Rebhuhn, president of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville. Commenting on just-released June statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service, he and other brokers say multiple offers are common “especially in the median price range.”

Read more here. 

My hummingbird feeder is giving me much pleasure these days, and I sat on the deck the other day taking pictures of the cute little birds until I got this one. It is easy to set-up a feeder; it just needs to be cleaned and filled every few days for these voracious feeders. 

I hope everyone is still staying safe and sound. It is heartening that there is some loosening, although we all still need to be careful. I don’t know about your car, but mine has three masks, two containers of hand sanitizer and a container of disinfectant wipes. It’s almost as if it’s the new normal, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that we can return to the normalcy we are accustomed to one of these days. 

On real estate, statistics have come out for the last month and I have linked to them below. 

Still a Seller’s Market

If you have a home to sell, this is a great time. Homes that are correctly priced are still seeing multiple offers; as a matter of fact, one listing in Edmonds had twenty-two offers this week. 

The one constant theme is “if I sell, where am I going to go? How will I get my current home ready in time? Is it better to wait until next year and have all the details complete, or to sell now when we know the climate is right?”

There are various answers and solutions to these questions, and of course one thing that makes this such a great time to buy, despite the competition, are the low interest rates. 

I have a few clients who are looking in smaller towns such as Port Townsend, Anacortes, and Bellingham, where prices are lower than Seattle. We are seeing quite a few contingent offers now, especially if the seller is living in the Seattle core where the demand is high. 

While it’s not comfortable, many people in this transition phase have put the majority of their belongings in pods and storage, and often lived in long-term rental housing such as AirBnB, which is now offering month-to-month. 

Sellers can also ask for a long closing, or even for rent back. Bridge loans are available. There are options. 

When putting an offer on a competitive property, I always research the property and comparables, get information from the listing broker on how many offers are coming in, and position the offer to be competitive. We do this by having a letter from the lender ready and stating the buyer is pre-qualified, making sure our earnest money is competitive, and having done what we need to do including pre-inspections. If we use an escalation clause it has a cap for the price the buyer wants to pay. 

Commercial Real Estate
I’ve been delving into more commercial real estate this last year, and working with Keith McKinney, our Commercial Director and Coordinator. If you are interested in buying or selling commercial real estate, please let me know. 

The Northwest Multiple Monthly Press Release 
“Anything under $1 million is selling quickly, and most new listings coming to market are going pending in just a few days,” stated Mike Grady, president and COO at Coldwell Banker Bain. 

Read more here. 

As we move through the stages of this pandemic, I hope everyone is staying well, safe and sound. The world is continuing to adjust and I hope you are too. I find myself working in the mornings, as usual, on the computer, and spending more time in the evening on fitness. With the days getting longer, I enjoy walking and seeing the spring flowers. From gardens to potted plants, there is something beautiful to see on every block.

In real estate we are all adjusting. I’ve started seeing more homes on buyer searches, yet our statistics show it’s still a seller’s market. During our virtual office meeting last week, we heard that buyers were socially distanced around the corner to see a particular listing. 

I am working hard to keep my clients safe, and I’ll detail this below: 

Aside from providing PPE if my clients don’t have it, I am following the rules set-out by Governor Inslee, and have only been allowing two people in a listing at a time, with social distancing. I recommend that buyers are prequalified by their lender or one of my recommended lenders so we have a pre-qualification letter and and ready to pounce (unless they are paying cash, of course). 

I’ve also given virtual walk-throughs on Facetime, and have installed various other video applications on my phone. 

At a recent listing appointment, the seller opened all the doors and windows for the walkthrough, and so I was able to move around the home, take pictures and notes without touching anything. I later sent a to-do list which she is working through. This includes increasing curb appeal, painting the living room a neutral color and fixing a few odd-and-end maintenance items. 

Open houses are still virtual, and our marketing department is doing a wonderful job creating them for us in conjunction with virtual landing pages, as seen here. They have given the listing a dedicated web page using it’s address, and added other features. I can either be in the listing for a live walkthrough, or use other tools such as Powerpoint from my home office.

Photographers, inspectors and appraisers are also taking sanitary measures by wearing PPE and being the only person in a home. If surfaces are touched for any reason, they are wiped down. 

The process of sending in an offer is the same as usual, electronic. Similarly, the closing documents are sent electronically. 

While many of these procedures have been in place for a long time, now they have become necessary. 

As part of our new virtual programs, our copywriter also created a new biography for me! I think it ties all aspects of my life together nicely. Everything we do in life contributes to what we do today, and the future.  

Marketing is also creating seller listing presentation booklets to send for listing presentations. 

Market Flash

Real-time links from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data for Seattle show that we are still in a seller’s market. 

Read More Here

We are in amazing times and everyone is asking how the market is during this Covid-19 crisis.

First of all, I hope everyone is staying protected, safe, and well. This is a difficult time of quarantining, but also is giving people time to work on their homes, gardens and other projects. 

According to local statistics and word of mouth in the industry, many listings are seeing multiple offers within a week, do to the low inventory and high demands.

We can show homes virtually or in person. A broker from our Lake Union office showed my Edmonds listing by doing a video walkthrough and sending it to her client – and he is still interested! 

If we show in person, we have to let only two people in at a time, the others must wait outside. Of course, we also need to use all the other precautions. 

I just attended a Facebook live meeting with Tom Ferry and he and his associates from Keeping Current Matters. They discussed the national market and climate. Here are a few slides they encouraged us to share. They point to a someone fast V-shaped recovery. 

I hope you all have been staying well, safe, and sound. I’ve been using some of this time to focus on staying healthy, and am lucky have have Watson to keep me motivated! He needs a lot of exercise and so I not only take him running, but have walked him up and down hills and even taken him paddle boarding. I’ve been on a health kick lately, eating foods such as avocados, coconut and soy milk and hope to come out on the other side healthier than I went in. 

I have also been joining dance classes and other events via Zoom. One I can recommend is Swing It Seattle.  If you would like me to share any others, please let me know. Most of them show up on my Facebook feed, which has been a great way to stay in touch with friends. 

I’m in charge of hosting a dinner dance and silent auction for the Northwest Dance Network (I am on the board) at the Ballard Elks August 15th. It is planned to be an Italian themed event with Chicken Piccata. Brian Lee is scheduled to play swing music, and I hope we can proceed with this, depending on what phase we are in. I’m still looking for silent auction items; if you have something you think might be appropriate, please email. 🙂 

I’ve given virtual open houses and tours in the last month, which has worked out well. I also have shown homes in person, abiding by the strict rules. One rule is to only allow two people in a home at a time, and use PPE.

Market Activity
The figures continue to roll out for real estate activity in April. 

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service press release points to low inventory and a seller’s market. Coupled with low interest rates, this is motivating many buyers and we are seeing multiple offers. 

Read more here. 

With all that has been going on we have been home in order to stay well and stay safe. 

Drawing on my first career in garden maintenance and design, I’ve been working on my Landscape Design Workshop presentation and thought I would share. 

Click-here for the link, and have fun if you decide to try it. Feel free to me with any questions.: andree@seattlehometour.com 

I like the graphic representation of what real estate did in King County during 2019. Compare the blue line for 2019 with the brown line of 2011. Real estate often runs in ten year cycles, and so we shall see if this year brings a different trend. One thing we know is that we are experiencing very low inventory this month and multiple offers in some core neighborhoods. 

Click here to see the charts of appreciations rates. 

With such pressure in Seattle, some neighborhoods are still seeing multiple offers and appreciation. However, many people are choosing to buy north and south in Snohomish and Pierce counties, which are helping to increase appreciation in those areas.

See the following reports and look up your zip-code.

King SFR – October 2019

Snohomish SFR – October 2019

Pierce SFR – October 2019

The Washington state Legislature is changing the way real estate excise taxes (REET) are calculated.

This change may affect the amount of excise tax you pay depending on the sale price of your property.
Currently, the state excise tax is 1.28 percent. Local municipalities add their excise tax on top of the state
tax, with most cities in our area adding 0.50 percent, to total 1.78 percent. Effective January 1, 2020, Washington state will begin calculating real estate
excise taxes based on a tiered system:

• Sales under $500,000: 1.1% tax rate (down from
1.28%)

• Sales from $500,000 to $1.5 million: 1.28% tax
rate (unchanged and 1.1% marginal rate on first
$500k)

• Sales from $1.5 million to $3 million: 2.75% tax
rate (115% increase, but marginal rate increase
means first $500k @1.1%, then $500k to $1.5M
@ 1.28%)

• Sales over $3 million: 3.0% tax rate (134%
increase, marginal rates in effect)

NEW REAL ESTATE EXCISE TAX RATES*
Municipality tax of 0.5% included below.
Rates take effect January 1, 2020

*Municipalities of Darrington, Eatonville, Skykomish and
Wilenson have a lower tax rate of 0.25 percent.

If you are thinking of buying or selling soon, now would be a great time to contact us and find out how this new legislation will affect
your transaction.

Whether buying or selling, knowing the effect of this excise tax could save you thousands or tens of thousands of dollars.

Contact me today to find out more.

Click-Here to Read More.

Recent statistics and news are available on the following links: 

September 2019

July 

June

Sold! 

Leavenworth Cottage for Sale! 

Watson loves to play!

Spring is here and I am enjoying the the longer days; it gives me a chance to take Watson out for dog walks after work. There is the  proliferation of blossoms that comes along with longer days: not only are we seeing new growth in the plant world, but more listings are coming on every day, and being absorbed.

April brings Daffodils to the Skagit Valley; Tulips and the Tulip Festival are coming right up!

April brings Daffodils to the Skagit Valley; Tulips and the Tulip Festival are coming right up!

From the Northwest Multiple:

Housing Market Rebounds From February Freeze
Press Release

KIRKLAND, Washington (April 5, 2019) – Both pending sales and new listing activity around Western Washington surged during March as buyers, sellers, and brokers emerged from February’s record snowfall.

Brokers added 10,516 new listings of single family homes and condos to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service inventory last month, the highest monthly volume since August 2018. Compared to the same month a year ago, new listings across the 23 counties in the report were down slightly (79 fewer units).

MLS members also reported 10,261 pending sales during the same timeframe, the highest number of mutually accepted offers since July, and nearly matching the year-ago total of 10,311.

“After the housing adjustment in 2018, this year’s spring market is back to frenzied in the more affordable and mid-price ranges,” remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. Noting March is the start of the prime-time selling season, he expects this year “will be no exception.” He also commented on improved affordability from last fall’s price adjustments in the close-in job centers of Seattle and the Eastside. “This improved affordability, along with lower interest rates and very strong job growth, all point us in the right direction for red-hot acceleration again this year,” Scott stated.

Read more here…

Following is our Market Flash, still showing a few negatives in the appreciation column; compare to the previous reports here.

More Links

* Newsy Links (andreehurley.com/blog/newsy-links/) – see what has been happening in real estate.

* Our Annual Report (andreehurley.com/files/2019/01/north-2018-annual-report_final.pdf) for 2018

* Are you interested in Luxury Properties? Take a tour of our Global Luxury (www.coldwellbankerluxury.com/) website!

* InfoSparks Report for “Seattle” (nwmls.stats.showingtime.com/infoserv/s-v1/7t51-vl4)

Testimonials
Cindy: I am a first time home buyer. Andree Hurley helped me find my beautiful condo in Edmonds (Point Edwards). I knew I wanted it the moment I saw it. Andree made herself available to write the offer that very day. She was patient and instructive throughout the hours it took to complete the offer. From then on, she was on top of everything that needed to be done. She communicated well with me and with the seller’s agent. The sale closed quickly and on time. I am very happy with her services and definitely would recommend her. Thank you.
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Bruce: This is the second property Andree has sold for me, with excellent results. My late Mother’s house was a mess. Andree provided invaluable assistance in helping prepare Mom’s house for sale, and during the sale itself. Her communication and attention to detail were excellent, and her efforts often went beyond what I would have expected of a listing agent. During the listing and sale process, we had to work through a number of difficult surprises, not the least of which was a long-forgotten fuel oil tank which the Inspection found under the house. Andree skillfully assisted me through the process of obtaining city approval to treat (and not have to do the nearly-impossible task of removing) the tank to everybody’s satisfaction.
_________________________________________________

Click Here for More Testimonials

Relocation and referrals

Because of our national and international network within Coldwell Banker, I can help you, a friend or relative with their move by finding a real estate professional on both sides. I will call and interview brokers to try to make sure they are the right fit.

Referrals make up the bulk of my business and are not only a compliment but also much appreciated.

It was such a pleasure to work with Cindy, and to see the look on her face when she fell in love at first sight with her new condominium!

Thank you for the nice review!

I am a first time home buyer. Andree Hurley helped me find my beautiful condo in Edmonds. I knew I wanted it the moment I saw it. Andree made herself available to write the offer that very day. She was patient and instructive throughout the hours it took to complete the offer. From then on, she was on top of everything that needed to be done. She communicated well with me and with the seller’s agent. The sale closed quickly and on time. I am very happy with her services and definitely would recommend her. Thank you.

Have you been wondering what happened in 2018 in the Northwest real estate market? Many of us are talking about the old and the new market since we saw a softening in June. That said, home sales are still strong, mortgage rates are still low (although a bit higher than last year), and more homes are hitting the market making for some mobility. Those who didn’t want to sell because they didn’t know where to go, may find more opportunity to downsize or upsize.

Coldwell Banker Bain’s Annual Real Estate Report for 2018

If you love seeing charts and graphs with real estate appreciation rates, click through to see data from 2018.

Winter Bird Migration, Holidays, and the End of an Annual Cycle…

Swans and Sunsets
Sunsets and Swans in the Skagit Flats
We have been enjoying a run of crisp, cold weather and clear skies in the Northwest. This has encouraged me to go to the Skagit Flats, north of Seattle, and engage in one of my favorite hobbies, photography. This is the time of year when the Snow Geese and Trumpeter Swans move through on their southern migrations.

We are also in the midst of the holiday season and at the end of another annual real estate cycle…real estate running in annual and ten year cycles. (Case Schiller Index)

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service’s (NWMLS) monthly press release is out, with good news for buyers! While it is still a seller’s market by definition, we are moving towards a balanced real estate market in the Northwest.

The MLS is statewide, and while some regions (such as Leavenworth) also have their own, local service, the NWMLS pulls in statistics from its statewide membership.

By looking at the charts at the end of the press release, it is easy to see which counties are having price appreciations and which aren’t…which reminds me of the concept of selling high and buying lower.

Empty nesters and retirees fall in to this category, and I have been consulting a few clients recently on potential retirement towns. These include Edmonds, Kingston, Winslow, Port Townsend, Port Angeles, Bellingham, Oak Harbor, Anacortes and the San Juan Islands.

It may seem like a far spread, but thanks to my background in sea kayaking, and the number of friends who are sea kayakers that have asked me to help them, I know a fair amount about these areas.

Edmonds is close to Seattle, home to my office, and a beautiful seaside town. The prices are not low, but the proximity to Seattle and its walkable downtown make it desirable.

Kingston is a bit lower in price, but due to the advent of the foot ferry to downtown Seattle, it has seen multiple offers lately. For anyone who wants easy access to the outdoors, the Olympic Peninsula is only a few hours away.

Winslow is a very desirable location and is somewhat a bedroom community for those working downtown. Just ride the ferry during rush hour, or after a game, to experience the neighborly atmosphere. The downtown is also very walkable, and has a plethora of great restaurants and art galleries – I love heading to the first Friday art walk!

Moving north, Bellingham is a town I know fairly well as I lived there for three years during the nineties. Also a seaside town, it has an avid outdoors population with sea kayaking, mountain biking and skiing within close proximity. The university brings in students from around the world, and the town, of course, is home to professors and others who are employed by the school. I know several people who have sold in Seattle and bought in Bellingham.

Of course the San Juan Islands have a lot to choose from. People generally compare Lopez, Orcas and San Juan Island. Lopez Island is known for its destination road biking, Orcas Island might be considered quite “artsy”, and San Juan (in my humble opinion) is a bit less rustic than the rest. It also has (similar to East Sound on Orcas), a walkable downtown, a hospital (with flight insurance available), and the lovely west side, which overlooks Canada, and is often populated by Orca whales.

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Appreciation Rates, Sales

The chart below shows we are still having some healthy appreciation rates, although the days on market (DOM) are longer.

MonthsOfInventoryRealEstateTables_Nov18

These charts, compiled by our Lake Union office, show the story well. Note how this year’s line, in blue, differs from previous years. December

More Links

andreehurley.com/blog/newsy-links/

Ballard:
www.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/186b2913-b5d4-445e-92f1-327e0b508a68

Magnolia:
www.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/af020671-0791-4f45-8ff1-b1529b975ad0

Queen Anne:
www.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/ef8faa96-c990-41b0-b7d1-4849213b5147

West Seattle:
www.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/6f774b83-47db-473a-a9b9-5efc657cc74a

Bainbridge:
andreehurley.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/4df4ef6b-6b2d-49e1-8e47-db0f6a470326

Anacortes:
andreehurley.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/84597c52-2af8-4068-b076-643c5b8753d4

Bellingham:
www.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/b074b5b5-a6b5-48d4-bde3-6942597263c1

Port Townsend:
www.coldwellbankerbain.com/MarketReport/7839d6a3-eae6-4c36-823c-32f563432b75

InfoSparks, from the MLS: nwmls.stats.showingtime.com/infoserv/s-v1/7t51-vl4

What is happening elsewhere?

From the New York Times:
– www.nytimes.com/2018/12/07/realestate/the-new-normal-its-a-buyers-market.html
– www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/upshot/housing-market-slumping-despite-booming-economy.html

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Testimonials

“This is the second property Andree has sold for me, with excellent results. My late Mother’s house was a mess. Andree provided invaluable assistance in helping prepare Mom’s house for sale, and during the sale itself. Her communication and attention to detail were excellent, and her efforts often went beyond what I would have expected of a listing agent. During the listing and sale process, we had to work through a number of difficult surprises, not the least of which was a long-forgotten fuel oil tank which the Inspection found under the house. Andree skillfully assisted me through the process of obtaining city approval to treat (and not have to do the nearly-impossible task of removing) the tank to everybody’s satisfaction.”

_________________________________________________

“I am very pleased with the effort Andree made as my agent and finding my “forever home”. Throughout the search, questions I asked were always answered promptly, and she made sure that I had information about CC&R’s and HOA dues, so I wouldn’t exceed my budget. She really seems to love what she does and is committed to her clients. Andree went to great lengths to find the home I ultimately purchased. It was her creativity in preparing and negotiating the final offer that sealed the deal with the seller. I would recommend Andree to anyone wanting purchase or sell property.”

_________________________________________________

“Andree is organized, thorough and professional. Our communication was clear and concise. Andree is a top professional who has the experience and knowledge to help a seller or buyer in their real estate transaction”.

Relocation and referrals

Because of our national and international network within Coldwell Banker, I can help you, a friend or relative with their move by finding a real estate professional on both sides. We will call and interview brokers to try to make sure they are the right fit.

Referrals make up the bulk of my business and are not only a compliment but also much appreciated. I also will partner with brokers in our network when listing property outside the greater Seattle and Eastside area, such as in the San Juan Islands and on the Olympic Peninsula.

As many of us have noticed, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service has statistics that show there has been an increase in inventory, and a significant drop in prices over the last month. We usually do see a shift in the market as we near the holidays; it’s typically a good time for buyers. That said, homes are still appreciating, and the market is returning to a more balanced state.

KIRKLAND, Washington (November 6, 2018) – Seven months of steadily rising housing inventory reversed course in October when Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers added the fewest new listings since February, according to a new report. MLS members believe the onset of wintry weather and transition to the holiday season are factors, but suggested the slower pace also signals improving conditions for house-hunters.

“After months of inventory growth that more than quadrupled the number of homes buyers have to choose from, things got back on a seasonal track with new listings and total supply falling in October,” said Robert Wasser, a director with Northwest MLS, when comparing those metrics with September.

“Buyers are catching on to their newfound ability to negotiate. For the first time since 2012, closed sales system-wide rose from September to October,” noted Wasser, a branch manager with Windermere Real Estate in Bellevue.

Northwest MLS members added 8,865 new listings to inventory last month in the 23 counties it encompasses, down from September’s volume of 10,458, but up 4.7 percent from the year-ago total of 8,466 new listings. Compared to September, last month’s number of total active listings shrunk nearly 6.7 percent, but year-over-year inventory rose 33.2 percent, from 13,680 to 18,223 offerings.

Brokers generally welcomed the bump-up in inventory.

Real estate veteran Mike Grady, the president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, commented on the current “win-win” conditions. “We’re entering that time of year when historically the market slows a bit as we head into the holidays. Buyers continue to see an improving market compared to last year with the inventory increasingly to 2.4 months of supply in King County, compared to the year-ago figure of less than a month (0.98),” he stated.

Area-wide there is nearly 2.3 months of inventory, slipping from more than 2.5 months in September, and improving on the year-ago figure of about 1.5 months of supply.

The year-over-year gains in supply, while notable, are still “way off from a balanced market that provides five to six months of inventory,” Grady remarked, adding, “Contrary to recent media reports, the sky is not falling,” he emphasized, pointing to rising prices and strong jobs reports as factors for a positive outlook. (The State Employment Security Department reported Washington gained 4,500 jobs in September.)

“Home prices in King County are up nearly 8.6 percent year over year, so we’re still experiencing significant appreciation,” Grady stated. Given continued reports of hiring by companies in the Puget Sound region and recent increases in inventory, he expects homebuyers will continue entering the market, adding, “And sellers can still expect to get good prices — all this without the frenzy. A win-win,” he proclaimed.

Northwest MLS figures for October show median prices system-wide for homes and condos are up about 4.6 percent from a year ago, rising from $373,000 to $390,000. King County prices jumped from $565,000 to $613,509 for a gain of about 8.6 percent. All but four of the 23 counties in the report experienced price increases from a year ago.

Condo prices are up 7.8 percent from a year ago. In King County, which accounted for more than half of last month’s condo sales, prices rose 5.8 percent, from $378,000 to $400,000. Median prices in King County peaked so far this year (at $466,500) in the spring when sales closed at several newly built condos in downtown Seattle and Bellevue. The median price on newly built condos that have sold in King County so far in 2018 is $830,287.

Both pending sales (mutually accepted offers) and closed sales dipped by double-digits during October. MLS members reported 9,015 pending sales, down 14.8 percent from the year-ago total of 10,586, but up slightly from the previous month’s figure of 8,913.

The volume of closed sales declined nearly 11 percent area-wide, although eight counties reported double-digit year-over-year increases. For the four-county Puget Sound region, the number of completed transactions fell 15.3 percent from a year ago, but rose 5.2 percent compared with September.

Commenting on the latest MLS statistics, J. Lennox Scott noted “unsold inventory levels are higher than we’ve seen in the past three years,” adding, “We’ve gone from being virtually sold out in many areas close to the job centers to healthier inventory levels.” Instead of an “extreme shortage,” there is now just a “shortage level” of unsold inventory in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, according to Scott, the chairman and CEO of John L. Scott.

Scott believes the current market provides opportunities for those looking to move before the New Year, even with a home-to-sell contingency. “It’s okay to buy and sell within same-market timing, although it remains crucial for those looking to purchase a home to be buyer-ready for the best chance to get their chosen property,” he advised.

“The increase in standing listing inventory brought more choices to buyers and the meteoric price increases of the spring market have slowed,” stated MLS director John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle. “Sellers responded by capturing available buyers with competitive pricing or by quickly adjusting pricing,” he reported.

Many sellers are feeling the change, Deely noted. “Longer market times upset their expectations of a quick sale,” he explained. Also, he said, brokers are reporting some sellers’ pricing remains flexible “even after a price reduction as buyers take advantage of a seller’s desire to beat the competition.” He also noted that despite downward trending prices, year-over-year pricing is up.

Brokerage owner George Moorhead of Bentley Properties has noticed a “significant uptick in buyer activity during the past three weeks,” calling it typical for this time of year. “Buyers are more than testing the waters as they see better pricing, less competition, and have a desire to secure their next home for the holidays.”

In response to persistent questions about a possible housing bubble, Moorhead said the clear answer is “Absolutely not.” As buyers, sellers and even brokers adjust to a more balanced and healthy market, “there will be some feeling of the unknown,” he believes.

“When you look at the big picture, inventory is still below what we call a balanced market, the economy is performing above average, and home appreciation is still increasing.” Moorhead stated. Even more important is that homes that are priced correctly are still selling quickly, “under 15 days” he remarked.

Northwest MLS director Dick Beeson also commented on the changing market in the South Sound region, although it is at a less pronounced level than the Greater Seattle area.

Unlike King County where the volume of active listings more than doubled from a year ago, the Pierce-Thurston counties area had modest inventory gains in the 9-to-12 percent range, noted Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Gig Harbor. Year-over-year pending sales are off 12.3 percent while prices rose about 8.3 percent.

“When choices are more abundant, buyers become more discerning, and they make better choices on the homes they select,” Beeson observed, while offering advice to sellers. “Some sellers need to become more discerning with their asking price. That’s the pathway to being sold.”

Recent rises in interest rates are of some concern, according to some industry leaders.

“The rise in interest rates has some sellers and buyers concerned as it erodes the affordability of our already price sensitive market,” stated Deely.

Moorhead reported buyers have expressed little concern, but are more worried about home prices and future values over the next 3-to-5 years. With a diminishing pool of buyers as the year winds down, builders are ramping up incentives, according to Moorhead. He said mortgage interest rate buydowns are among the incentives, along with custom upgrades and payment of closing costs.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, expressed concern about inventory and interest rates. “The insufficient supply of low to-mid-priced homes in metro markets with strong job growth continues to drive up prices and push prospective buyers out of the market,” he said in a NAR report on third quarter activity.

“As mortgage rates continue to rise, reaching the decade’s highest rates this quarter, an increase in the supply of affordable homes has become even more important to help temper price growth across the country,” Yun commented.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of around 2,200 member offices includes more than 29,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.

Statistical Summary By Counties
Market Activity Summary and 4-County Puget Sound Region Pending Sales (PDF)

www.northwestmls.com/index.cfm?/News–Information/page/Latest-Press-Release

These statistics are compiled by our Lake Union office. We are seeing a different market than last year – and I am looking forward to seeing what August brought, when the results are out in September.

Whether you are a buyer or seller, this flow chart can help you navigate through your transaction!

I’m happy my friend Karen will be moving into the home we found for her soon! 🙂

She says:

“I am very pleased with the effort Andree made as my agent and finding my “forever home”. Throughout the search, questions I asked were always answered promptly, and she made sure that I had information about CC&R’s and HOA dues, so I wouldn’t exceed my budget. She really seems to love what she does and is committed to her clients. Andree went to great lengths to find the home I ultimately purchased. It was her creativity in preparing and negotiating the final offer that sealed the deal with the seller. I would recommend Andree to anyone wanting purchase or sell property.” Karen Scharer

It is in a nice older residential neighborhood in Oak Harbor, full of oak trees and with a view of the water! It was custom built by a son for his mother, lived in by another son, making Karen the third owner.

andreehurley.coldwellbankerbain.com/Home/WA/Oak-Harbor/1711-SE-8th-Ave-98277/34708610

I enjoyed helping my client sell a home in Seattle recently, and evidently he did too as he writes: “Andree is organized, thorough and professional. Our communication was clear and concise. Andree is a top professional who has the experience and knowledge to help a seller or buyer in their real estate transaction.”

I love this quarterly report! We have a new marketing team and they have organized the data into an easy to read and beautiful format. Obviously we are still operating with low inventory, high demand and low supply. Buyers are getting wary of overpriced listings, which causes them to stay on the market over a week. Many listings on the market over ten days are considered stale, and thus bring a lower price than they would have if they had been priced properly at the point they hit the market.

Quarterly Report Coldwell Banker Bain for 2018

2018 is starting off with a bang!

Read more here…

Appreciation Rates, Sales The most impressive appreciation rates between the three counties in January were West Bellevue, Kirkland, Bainbridge, Edmonds, Lynnwood and University Place. The latter show how some buyers are travelling further from the Seattle core to find available inventory and prices.

The trend of low inventory continues because potential sellers don’t know where they are going to go. This is causing many to consider ageing in place. In some cases, the baby boomer generation is either moving in with their children, or inviting their childrn to move in with them, and so remodeling their homes to include aditional dwelling units. That said, it is possible to sell high in Seattle, and buy low within ten to thirty minutes of Seattle. Thanks to a friend and client, I have been researching north to Stanwood, Camano, Whidbey, Anacortes, and Bellingham, or east to Kingston, Poulsbo or Sequim.

On a lighter note, it is almost Valentines Day! Think chocolate, wine and dine! Here are a few ideas between our three counties!

Are you looking for something to do? Here are some upcoming events: Feb 9 – Valentine’s Concert – Burien Feb 10 – Makers Market – Mi Amor – Everett Feb 10 – Gig Harbor

Feb 15 – Art Walk Edmonds; stop by our Edmonds office to see this fun art by local children! I’ll be perusing galleries and would love some company!

* Newsy Links – see what has been happening in real estate. * The most recent Northwest MLS Press Release * Reports for various areas are below – if you would like one for your neighborhood please let me know! Ballard Magnolia Queen Anne Eastern Side of West Seattle Central Part of West Seattle Western Side of West Seattle Bellingham Port Townsend * The Multiple Listing Service gave us a new tool, “InfoSparks”! I ran a report using: Seattle, Residential, all price ranges: InfoSparks Report for “Seattle” Relocation and referrals Because of our national and international network within Coldwell Banker, I can help you, a friend or relative with their move by finding a real estate professional on both sides. We will call and interview brokers to try to make sure they are the right fit. Referrals can make up the bulk of my business and are not only a compliment but also much appreciated. I also will partner with brokers in our network when listing property outside the greater Seattle and Eastside area, such as in the San Juan Islands and on the Olympic Peninsula.

It always fun to see which county and city had the highest or lowest appreciation rate!

In December, in King County, Ballard had a negative percentage….while Mt. Baker/Seward Park had the highest at 22.44%

We have so many excellent sources of real estate analysis I thought I would post a few links for ease of find them. After reading the Northwest Multiple Press Release for January, 2018 (below), it is obvious that we had extremely low inventory in December. Real estate runs in ten year cycles, and it has been over ten years since the recession and time when many homes were bought over their value – now those homes have gained back their value and have equity.

What do the charts say? A highly respected appraiser, Alan Pope, has a wonderful compilation of charts on his website:
www.alanpope.com/charts.htm. Looking at his ten-year cycle, inventory is still going down in the Puget Sound region, but has had a consistent pattern in King County.

Trendgraphix is another program we have available to us at Coldwell Banker Bain. Here is their graph of real estate trends over the last ten years:

What this means is that if one has a home to sell near the Seattle core, there is a still low supply and high demand – a great time to sell. The big question I hear is “where will I move?”. Much of this depends on you, the seller. Would you be happy moving north, for example, to areas further from Seattle but with lower prices. Stanwood and Camano Island have had homes with lower prices and longer days on the market, but it may take an hour or so to get to downtown Seattle during rush hour. Edmonds, Lynnwood, Mill Creek and Briar and closer in and have lower prices, but they are seeing a lot of pressure now considering the low inventory around Seattle.

I have helped clients buy in Kitsap County and they love it. They have the ferry to consider, but the lifestyle is wonderful, especially if one likes the outdoors, and there are some great shopping and dining pockets.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service Press Release
“Exceptionally low” inventory slows year-end home sales, contributes to steep price hikes around Greater Seattle region
Latest Press Release
January 5, 2017

KIRKLAND, Washington (January 5, 2018) – The year 2017 may be in the books and for many members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service it was a memorable one with December’s activity being no exception. Brokers reported historic lows for inventory and year-over-year price gains in most areas.

“I’ve never seen inventory this low in Kitsap County in 27 years,” remarked Northwest MLS director Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. That county’s number of active listings last month plunged nearly 40 percent from year-ago levels.

At month end, there were only 397 active listings in Kitsap County (down from the year-ago total of 659), a level Wilson described as “exceptionally low,” even accounting for seasonal factors. “A normal inventory in Kitsap County used to be 1,500 to 1,700, but we have not seen this number of active listings in several years,” he lamented (Northwest MLS data show the last time inventory topped 1,500 in that county was in July 2014 when there were 1,503 listings at month end).

For the MLS area overall, inventory shrunk 19 percent, from 10,569 active listings at the end of 2016 to last month’s figure of 8,553. That’s the smallest selection for any month in the past decade. For the fourth time this year, monthly inventory dipped below the 10,000 mark, a level not reached at any other time during the 10-year comparison.

Despite the paltry supply, last month’s sales remained remarkably strong, with closings up slightly (0.88 percent) from a year ago. Northwest MLS members reported 7,642 closed sales, about the same volume as a year ago when completed transactions totaled 7,575.

Year-over-year pending sales of single family homes and condos (combined) fell about 3 percent, from 6,390 to 6,198, but far outgained the number of new listings added to inventory (4,053).

“December, which has historically been a slower month, picked up momentum and never let up,” reported George Moorhead, designated broker at Bentley Properties. Unlike October through November, which he described as slower than what had been seen the past three years, “December drew aggressive buyers, some motivated by expectations of a flattening market, with others trying to beat anticipated interest rate hikes.” Purchasers were from all buying demographics, noted Moorhead, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors.

Several MLS leaders commented on the consequences of depleted inventory, including OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.

“While pending sales are down double digits in King County, it’s not because there are fewer people buying, it’s because there is far less to buy,” according to Jacobi. “That’s why home prices tell the true story of this market and the huge discrepancy between supply and demand. As long as this imbalance remains, prices will continue to see steep increases, just as they did in December and throughout 2017.”

Northwest MLS statistics show prices rose 11.4 percent system-wide for the 7,642 completed sales of homes and condos. Thirteen of the 23 counties in the report had double-digit price hikes from a year ago. Two counties reported price drops: Chelan (-11.2 percent) and Douglas (-6.5 percent).

Within the Puget Sound region, King County registered the sharpest escalations at nearly 16 percent. Year-over-year prices jumped from $505,000 to $585,000. For single family homes in King County, the hike was similar (about 15.5 percent), rising from $550,000 to $635,000 at year end.

Condo prices surged 28 percent in King County over the past twelve months, from $315,000 to $402,000. During the same year-over-year period, active listings fell from 346 units to 206 (down more than 40 percent), leaving only about 10 days of supply (0.35 months of inventory).

System-wide, there is a little more than a month’s supply (1.12 months) of homes and condos, with the shortages most pronounced in the four-county Puget Sound region. Three of those counties – King, Kitsap and Snohomish – have less than a months supply; Pierce County is somewhat better off with 1.1 months.

“While all year we’ve been bemoaning lack of inventory and escalating prices, the statistics show 2017 was a banner year in many respects for real estate in the Puget Sound region and throughout the Northwest,” stated Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. He cited year-over-year gains in both prices and values, commenting “As a result of this strong market, homeowners are experiencing bountiful gains in property values.”

Brokers expect momentum to continue despite uncertainty about interest rates and taxes.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate believes the Central Puget Sound housing market will remain one of the strongest in the nation. “It will be another happy new year for real estate activity.” As the new year unfolds, he expects buyers “will emerge from winter holiday hibernation in big numbers” in part thanks to the Seahawks. “Without the Seahawks in the football playoffs, the 2018 housing market will be more intense earlier in January rather than heating up after the Super Bowl,” Scott remarked.

Scott also anticipates a “frenzied, multiple-offer market” in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, as well as “good-to-strong” sales activity in the luxury market close to the job centers. Positive job growth and attractive interest rates will propel activity, he suggests, adding “In the more affordable and mid-price ranges, the impact of the new federal tax policy is minimal.”

Wilson also believes the new tax code will not have an immediate impact on home sales in Kitsap County. “The majority of our purchasers are buying for lifestyle reasons such as a new job, transfer of job or duty station, or household size expanding or contracting.” He suggests 2018 “will look a lot like 2017” but everything will be amplified due to the extreme shortage of active listings.

Grady concurred. “As we look forward to 2018 we continue to believe this is a great time to buy real estate. We see only positive returns for homeowners and real estate investors this year and likely for several years to come.”

Moorhead anticipates aggressive buyer activity through May, but expects some short-term flattening thereafter with single-digit appreciation in the range of 5-to-7 percent. Builders still have memories of 2008, but with moderate activity and price increases likely to be sustained, “they are cautiously optimistic.”

Luxury buyers seem to be undeterred by the change in the mortgage interest deduction, Moorhead noted (the bill lowered the cap from $1 million to $750,000 for primary residences). He said they polled their top 30 luxury home buyers regarding the change. The most common responses were “disappointment at losing a great tax planning deduction,” Moorhead reported, but added, “Those surveyed said it would not change the style of home or price point for the homes they are looking to purchase.”

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 26,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.

KIRKLAND, Washington (December 6, 2017) – “Normal seasonal slowdowns” are reported by some real estate leaders with Northwest Multiple Listing Service, but other brokers say this holiday season is still drawing crowds at open houses along with competitive bidding in some neighborhoods.

Both inventory and pending sales dipped to their lowest levels since April, while prices still increased by double-digits in most of the 23 counties served by Northwest MLS.

MLS members reported 8,304 pending sales of single family homes and condos, a slight (1.6 percent) gain over the year-ago figure of 8,173. Last month’s mutually accepted offers surpassed the number of new listings (6,098) by 2,206 properties to keep supply tight.

“Until we see a balanced rate of 4-to-5 months of supply, instead of hovering around one month, we’re not likely to see much change,” remarked George Moorhead, designated broker at Bentley Properties. “However,” he added, “since we have seen these low inventory levels since 2013, maybe this is going to be the new normal.”

Moorhead, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, also said this time of year is actually one of the best times to find a home. “There is less competition and sellers who list their homes at this time are usually motivated to make their move. Some of the best pricing can be attained from December through early February,” he indicated.

Buyers seem to be undeterred by winter weather, holiday festivities or other seasonal or – for the most part — political distractions.

Gary O’Leyar, designated broker/owner of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Signature Properties, said December “may well provide an unexpected holiday reprieve for our local, weary real estate shoppers. Combined with the seasonal pace change and real estate industry pundits’ consternation over the effect of the federal income tax bill working its way through Congress, buyers could be getting some relief.” He urged potential sellers to take note as “This could be the signal they’ve been waiting for as a good time to sell before the pending tax laws that affect real estate ownership take effect.”

For those who are both prepared and patient, OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, said the holidays can actually be a great time to buy “because there is usually less competition and sellers are motivated to close out the year with a sale.”

More than 8,000 sellers found November to be a good time complete sales. Closed sales rose about 2.5 percent year-over-year, from 7,872 transactions to 8,068. Sales of single family homes (excluding condos) rose about 3.3 percent, but the volume of condos fell about 2.6 percent, likely due to limited selection.

“Open houses this past weekend drew strong traffic,” reported Northwest MLS chairman John Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. He said more than a hundred groups toured a condo in the Lake Union area.

“The Seattle market is inundated with technology workers, both newly relocated and those that have been renting and are ready to set down roots,” Deely noted, adding “Investors both large and small are stepping up their purchasing, signaling strong confidence in the Greater Seattle area.”

Strong demand is not confined to Seattle.

“The velocity of market means that every time a new listing is added all eyes focus like a laser beam to see what just happened,” said Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Gig Harbor. “If a worthy property comes on the market, buyers know it instantly as the information is streamed through every device known to man. Buyers step up and buy, quickly and efficiently.”

Brokers are noticing the buyers include growing numbers of millennials.

“Millennial buyers continue to enter the market but the extremely low inventory is hampering their success rate in finding and securing a purchase,” said Diedre Haines, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood.

Haines said November activity started slow, but definitely picked up later in the month. “Earlier this year I feared signs that a bubble was building, but I no longer see that happening,” she stated.

“While we continued to experience more of the same in November related to a lack of inventory, we are seeing more homes sold year-to-date,” observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. He noted the number of new listings in King County for November increased more than 7 percent compared to last year.

Area-wide, the volume of new listings added during November rose nearly 5.6 percent (from 5,776 to 6,098) compared to the same month a year ago.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, described sales activity for new listings as “extremely strong.” Despite lower overall volumes of new listings and sales, Scott said the majority of new listings are selling within their first 30 days on the market. He calculated November’s pending sales of single family homes outgained new listings by nearly 41 percent.

Despite improvements in new listings, brisk sales kept inventory well below year-ago levels. “King County is still experiencing double-digit reductions in inventory compared to this same time last year, but the shortage is even more pronounced in some outlying counties,” Grady noted, commenting “We’re not just talking about the main commuter counties.”

Significant decreases in inventory are found in Thurston (down 31 percent), Mason (down more than 26 percent), and Cowlitz (down more than 39 percent) counties. MLS figures show inventory is down more than 24 percent in Snohomish County and nearly 29 percent in Kitsap County. Across the 23 counties, it’s down about 15.9 percent.

Measured by months of supply, there is about 1.4 months of inventory overall. In King County, supply has dwindled to 0.79 months, and only slightly better, at 0.89 months, in Snohomish County.

Home values continue to escalate across the region. The system-wide median price of $379,000 was up 10.8 percent from a year ago, with 15 counties reporting even sharper gains.

In King County the median price for single family homes and condos combined jumped 15.6 percent, from $497,254 to $575,000. For single family homes (excluding condos), the median price was $630,750, up nearly 14.7 percent from last year. Condo prices surged 17.1 percent, due to a combination of depleted inventory (down 28 percent from a year ago) and higher prices for new condos. (In King County, the condo component classified as new construction that sold during November had a median price of $873,490.)

Commenting on prices, Haines emphasized wide variations are found when comparing median sales price within most counties. In Snohomish County, for example, the median price for homes and condos that sold in Mill Creek was $590,000, while in Darrington it was $191,475. Similarly, in King County, the median price for Bellevue homes and condos was $875,000; in Tukwila the sales price was $321,194. Brokers tend to concur prices may moderate in the coming year.

“Can we as an industry sustain this 10-to-15 percent increase in prices again in 2018? I don’t think so, but I don’t know,” remarked Beeson, adding, “I only know that when sellers decide to get serious and sell their home by finally setting the right price or finally improving the condition of their property to justify their price magic happens. Houses sell, people move, lives change forever.”

“Prices are expected to see some much needed slowdown in 2018 which will help bring more balance to the market,” stated Jacobi, who also believes a housing bubble is unlikely. “Rising home prices on their own don’t lead to a bubble; a number of other factors have to come into play.”

Moorhead agreed, saying he expects 2018 “will be less glamorous with 6-to-8 percent appreciation, or even a slight flattening of the market for 8-to-12 months.” Commenting on modest gains in income, at around 2.5 percent, he remarked “No wonder buyers in the market are so frustrated and willing to make significant concessions to secure their next home. It’s like chasing a train where you just cannot catch up and only the fastest can get on.”

Brokers tended to agree some of the provisions in the widely anticipated tax reform have “the potential to negatively affect home values nationwide.” Haines said a drop in sales is expected if the proposed bill as it stands is passed.

Notwithstanding the uncertainty around tax reform, Scott remains confident: “Market conditions are set for another robust market in the year 2018,” he stated.

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 26,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.

Today I am starting a new journey with a first-time home buyer and thought I would share the letter I wrote to them. In this market we have a couple of scenarios – in the city we are still seeing a lot of pressure and escalations, and so many buyers are moving north (and south) to find homes. For this reason, my buyer has decided to look in a bit north, and so I both researched the area online, and previewed a few homes yesterday. I also called one broker to find out how much interest he was seeing in his listing as it has no offer review date. He did say that some listings are seeing a lot of competition, and he has one very interested buyer in his listings.

Thus, I wrote this email:

I hope you two are doing well this morning!

I’m excited we are finally on the journey of finding you a home, and thought we might need to go over the process a little more.

We can also have another meeting to talk about some of these details, but for now I want to point out a couple of things, and have also attached a “buyer packet” that I have developed. Please let me know if you can open it 😊. I will also print one out to bring with me on Sunday.

It is missing a couple of things that are important in today’s market.

At this time there are very few homes on the market (low inventory, seller’s market). Because of this, many buyers may look at one one home and want to make an offer on it.

For this reason, there is a set date and time when the seller and their broker are looking at offers.

This can create competition and so the offers have a page called an “escalation” clause which sets the highest price the buyer will offer.

This means, if you see a house with an offer review date, we need to be prepared to escalate (usually $5,000 at a time). We can escalate to the amount you were approved for (taking into consideration your down payment, etc.)

Also, we need to have an inspection. An inspection can cost up to $500.00 each time, depending on the size of the house.

In a competitive situation, it is often expected that the inspection be done in advance (a pre-inspection).

To put this in terms of what you have been sending me, for example, a couple of the sellers are looking at offers on December 4th. If we see a house you want to put an offer on Sunday, then I would recommend hiring an inspector to look at it as soon as possible.

On the other hand, the one home has no offer review date (more traditional) and so can take an offer anytime. In this case we would put in an offer with an “inspection contingency” and then, if our offer is accepted, we will then hire the inspector. If everything is fine with house, we can go ahead. If the inspector finds something wrong, we can negotiate or pull out.

There is one more scenario. You may find a house that has been on the market for awhile that you like. This house might not require much negotiation, and may accept a lower price.

In summary, we can approach our journey keeping these three scenarios in mind, and find a home you will love to live in for many years.

Key indicators for Western Washington housing still rising, but brokers detect slowdown
Latest Press Release

November 6, 2017
Current Statistics | Market Recaps | Market Snapshot Infographic

KIRKLAND, Washington (November 6, 2017) – Early seasonal snow and questions swirling around the tax plan unveiled last week by House Republicans could make the usual seasonal slowdown more pronounced, say industry leaders from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. For October, however, key indicators trended upwards.

Pending sales rose nearly 8 percent from a year ago, closed sales were up 5.2 percent, and prices jumped about 8.2 percent, with 14 counties reporting double-digit gains. Even the number of new listings improved on the year-ago total.

Northwest MLS figures for the 23 counties it serves show members added 8,466 new listings to inventory during October, outgaining the year-ago total of 7,575 by 11.8 percent. Buyers outnumbered new listings, with 10,586 of them having their offers accepted. That number of pending sales was up nearly 8 percent from the same month a year ago.

“The challenge for buyers actually isn’t lack of choice, it is the rapid pace of sales,” suggested Ken Anderson, president/owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty.

“The market in Thurston County has never been better for sellers, and they’re getting the message,” Anderson remarked. His analysis revealed a 10-year high for sellers coming to market during October. “These savvy sellers are not waiting until spring to sell. They are taking advantage of today’s great market and making their move now,” he reported.

Buyers may find themselves in a quandary as the year winds down as they contemplate limited supply, possible upticks in interest rates and tax reform. Last week’s announcement of a provision in a GOP tax proposal to cap the mortgage interest deduction is concerning to buyers, brokers and builders.

“Imagine if the proposed plan to cap the mortgage interest deduction at $500,000 is approved in a market that is starved for homes and where the median price [for a single family home in King County] is now $630,000,” said O B Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “Homeowners may be less likely to sell because they would be giving up their grandfathered tax credit on their current home. That’s fewer homes for sale in a market where we really need them,” he stated, adding, “There could also be a flood of new buyers trying to purchase before the plan is passed, adding to the already hyper-competitive market conditions.”

The president of the National Association of REALTORS® also weighed in, saying details are currently under review, but stated, “Eliminating or nullifying the tax incentives for homeownership puts home values and middle class homeowners at risk, and from a cursory examination this legislation appears to do just that.”

Northwest MLS data show 66 percent of single family homes sold so far this year (Jan. – Oct.) in King County had selling prices of $500,000 or higher.

The median sales price system-wide for October was $373,000, up more than 8.1 percent from twelve months ago when it was $344,900. All counties in the four-county Puget Sound region notched double-digit gains.

For single family homes (excluding condos), the median sales price for last month’s completed transactions was $381,000. Within King County prices are considerably higher. In Seattle, year-over-year prices jumped 17.6 percent, from $625,000 to $735,000. On the Eastside, the median price for a single family home rose 10 percent from a year ago, increasing from $768,000 to $845,000. Nevertheless, high prices did not seem to deter many house-hunters.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, noted October was the “best ever for sales activity in the Puget Sound region.”

Northwest MLS brokers reported 7,740 pending sales in the four-county region (King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap), bettering the year ago mark of 7,487 mutually accepted offers. System-wide, pending sales increased from the year-ago total of 9,805 to last month’s total of 10,586 (up 7.97 percent).

“With a large buyer pool for each new listing, we saw a higher percentage of new listings sell within the first 30 days of coming on the market,” Scott reported, while also noting the seasonal change in housing market dynamics. “As we enter the winter market, the number of new listings being added will be in short supply from now through February,” he explained.

Compared to spring months, Scott expects volumes in the next few months will be at 30-to-50 percent of spring totals. “The stage is set once again for a frenzy housing market after the first of the year in the price ranges where there is a shortage of active listings for sale.”

Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott’s Poulsbo office, also commented on supply, noting in Kitsap County, the number of active listings is down nearly 24 percent from a year ago. “What this means to Kitsap County buyers is that everything is compressed: with lower inventory and higher prices the pressure continues to build for those buyers who need to find a home.”

Inventory remains low in many counties in the Northwest MLS system. Overall, there is only 1.5 months of supply of single family homes and condos combined. In King County, it’s less than one month. Industry analysts say four to six months typically indicates a balanced (or “normal”) market.

Most brokers agree inventory will not grow over the next few months. “Sellers who bring their homes on the market over the next three months will have a lot of interest because of the pent-up demand of buyers who are going to have fewer houses to consider,” suggested Wilson.

“Homebuyers in our area are at a real disadvantage right now,” commented Wilson, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. “They have to be pre-underwritten with their lenders, put forward a conventional or better offer, put down substantial earnest money, and hope that multiple offers do not escalate the price out of their affordability zone.” He fears “more and more buyers will be sidelined.”

Brokers in Snohomish County are detecting some tapering of activity.

“Buyers are no longer being as aggressive with concessions on homes when making offers and they are unwilling to compete for a home where sellers are being too aggressive with a list price,” commented George Moorhead, designated broker and owner at Bentley Properties. He also noted buyers who have been on the sidelines are now more active as they see a slowdown “and an opportunity to finally own a home without the multiple offer competition.”

Diedre Haines, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood, believes the usual seasonal slowdown is apparent “a bit earlier than usual.” She reported multiple offers are continuing but listings in Snohomish County are experiencing longer market times, fewer above-list price offers, and a noticeable increase in price reductions. “All of this puts an emphasis on how important correct, accurate pricing has become.”

Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, suggested statistics for October “at first blush suggest the lack of listings of single family homes and condos in the region is self-correcting.” As an example, he notes new listings in the tri-county region (King, Snohomish and Pierce) increased 11 percent from a year ago, while year-over-year sales rose only 6 percent. “That implies the shrinking inventory of homes for sale experienced over the past couple of year may be evening out.”

Looking at year-to-date figures tells a different story, according to Grady. His analysis of the three counties shows a 20 percent reduction in active listings. Factoring in strong sales yields a statistic known as months of inventory, which is under two months in the four counties comprising the Puget Sound region.

“The story continues to be in the ‘commuter’ counties, which are experiencing the biggest shrinkage from a year ago,” said Grady. “This reduction of supply will continue to put pressure on rising prices. Bottom line: investment in a home continues to be bullish with no change in sight.”

Northwest MLS board member Robert Wasser said while it may be a difficult time to be a buyer and a positive time to be a seller, the best strategy “regardless of market conditions is to calculate the pros and cons involved and make informed choices.” Wasser, the owner/broker at Prospera Real Estate in Seattle, recommends working with a real estate professional who, among other topics “is equipped to discuss market conditions, financing considerations, historic trends, and buying and selling strategies.”

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 26,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.

The president of our firm, Mike Grady, visited all of our offices with a third quarter report.

The 1st quarter the entire industry was down 25% – why? It was coldest winter in history, sickest winter in history with the highest absentee rate, and we had a new president with some uncertainty.

Our firm is building a new office in Bellevue – Global Luxury – it is going to be very luxurious and right in Lincoln Square

The Kirkland office is moving to Park Place, adjacent to Kirkland Urban, and we will have a new satellite office in Silverdale.

Coldwell Banker Bain now has a new contract with a direct feed to Zillow. Instead of 3 business days it will take one hour. It will have top billing with listing agent on top. When a buyer contacts a broker besides us we will be notified and so can contact that agent to promote the listing. Reports will be given to us.

The Multiple Listing Service has eight hundred fields. Zillow only wants four hundred fields. We will also have a traceable hyperlink.

Skyslope is a transaction management system

– Used by many companies – it turns a transaction into an offer. It then goes into Contactually and will return your dates and forward to clients. It will be a nice automated system to keep track of timelines.

We are getting a new comparative market analysis program called Cloud, it is higher definition.

Put out a client advisory on wire fraud; we have put it onto every listing package and it is not enough. There have been two more cases – the wire fraud was in the agreement.

We need to have a conversation with our clients on the phone to tell them not to respond to any request for a wire. For example, if you see anything like this, call your contact at Rainier Title and Escrow who is handling your transaction.

If not represented by Rainier, still call the agent – or call the buyer – and tell them they should not take wire instructions by email. Get on a landline ☺

A commercial report came out from the Black Creek Group forecasting the same trend lines in boom and bust ending in the second quarter of 2017 and going backwards.

It also looks forward six quarters. When have metropolitan areas reached peak there is an overcapacity situation with high rises everywhere, and no one builds another high-rise for another decade. He expected this in the greater Seattle area (from Mt. Vernon to Olympia). He though they would say we have reached oversupply…but that is not what they said.

They said we have two more years of this pace before we begin to get to the point where the cranes leave and the lights go out.

Twenty-four months of continually escalating offices, hotels, and motels. This is a predictor that we will have a good residential market. Take a deep breath – two months of rest, then ride like the wind.

Buyer books will be out next month.

Third quarter report – share it – share in Contactually every morning. Print it and mail to neighborhood. Getting press in England and China.

There has been a Chase letter in closing files, which says that electronic signatures were used and you will take all responsibility. Don’t sign it. If you don’t sign it the transaction will still close.

I attended a course today on the state of the real estate market and here are my notes – Denise Lones always has interesting and useful take-aways.

Money flow, building permits and inventory, follow laws and developers. We can also look at what is happening in the world.

The stock market hit a high today. Why? Investors are excited for tax reform…hedging their bets.

Health care not a rich mans game, but tax cuts are.

We were in a steroid market…a false market going into 2005. Vegas crashed; people could not afford to buy.

Lately we have seen multiple offers, however, now that we are in fall it’s not as crazy. Inventory has taken a dump – it came down a couple of hundred listings. Is this the time of year?

Issues are facing us:
1. Hirst decision – the minute a person can’t build in a location due to water issues, they will look elsewhere, moving demand for land. It will not be resolved this year.

2. Cost to build new construction has gone through the roof. There is a shortage of labor. Where are all the tradespeople going to come from? People also make more money freelancing – so why work for a builder?
Everyone and their uncle want to age in place. One plumber said he is working at 3x the normal rate and dropped all his contracts with big companies. Remodeling craze. HD TV makes it look easy.
3. Californians coming here for jobs, because we have rain. In some states, water companies will pay you to take out your grass. Major corporations are buying up land with water – show called Blue Gold.

4. Aging populations – aging and then dying – leave wealth to baby boomers. The average baby boomer that gets a settlement invests in real estate instead of the stock market.

5. Storm water and wildlife issues make building more difficult.
Some investors are buying legacy condos – they buy four condos for children in certain zip codes and sit on them. They don’t rent them out because of certain laws, which will cost them more money.

Lawsuit with one condominium building – the HOA is suing a company from China because the building is 80% empty.

Watch East Everett for new construction.

Investment is about control. City of Seattle has rent control.

Look at price of a condominium in Los Angeles and San Francisco – investors aren’t going to pay. Investors don’t want Seattle anymore due to those issues. They are scared of Seattle.

It is important to attend city council meetings.

Vancouver has done a powerful thing – big developers build eight units a floor – times two million a pop. Out of that Vancouver will need ten units at X dollars or 10% of the cost – and they will buy a community for the homeless.

They have made communities (people don’t wake up in the morning and want to be homeless). They are homeless for financial, drug, or mental illness reasons.

Killing off the first time homebuyers market has impacts on the rest of the market.

A five-five market is balanced. Vancouver is a 4-5, we are 2.5-3

There are five tiers: first time buyers, move up buyers, second set of move up buyers, seniors, and investors.

The market will change in two years. People don’t want to commute. Roads and transit are forcing people to make decisions. There will be inventory changes. Much depends on laws that may or may not pass.

Stock market, what goes up, comes down. Politics, such as a decision by Mueller, comes out one way or another and it will have an effect on stock market.

It is still a seller’s market in King County. While I have noticed more homes on the market in September (not reflected in most statistics yet), homes near Seattle are still on the market a short period of time. There is often a slow-down in August, while many are on vacation, but the chart shows only a wee slowdown.

One might wonder how there could be more sales then listings – this indicates a strong absorption rate where homes that have been on the market over a month time were purchased.

It’s still a good time to sell – the Seattle economy is going strong, thanks to Amazon, Facebook, Google and other high tech firms that are hiring and bringing new people to our area.

Many people wonder where to go – personally, I like Snohomish County. I have been showing five acre equestrian properties and, for example, some are going for as little as $500,000, the same price a small home in Seattle sells for.

Condominiums are also an option, and I know many people who have moved to Edmonds because it is a walkable, friendly, seaside town.

I have been helping at the Edmonds office holding down floor time, and find it quite enjoyable.

Overall, if you have been thinking about selling a home in Seattle, this is a good time to do it.

Ask me to help you with a comparative market analysis; I’ll research the activity in your neighborhood, tour your home, and give you a price range.